Corn Flea Beetle

The Steven-Boewe Forecasting System for Stewart’s Wilt Disease of Corn

Weather INnovations INcorporated has produced this forecasting system output for several years. As all forecasting systems are tools which help guide decisions, it is very useful to establish a benchmarking system for evaluation of the system's performance over time. This system was originally established in the 1930’s, but this report provides a benchmark for this season as compared to the last 2 seasons. The winter survivability of the corn flea beetle, the vector of this disease, will be related to many more factors than the average air temperatures (the drivers of this model) in December, January and February. One might speculate that this season’s snow cover would increase survivability relative to the last 2 seasons; but then again, the "longer winter" we are experiencing might decrease this insect's survivability. The overall predictions as generated by this model, would suggest higher risk for this season than in 2006, but slightly lower risk for this year than last year. The score is the sum of the average monthly temperatures over the three months; and the colder the average, the lower the predicted survivability. At all five locations the score falls between 2006 which was colder; and 2007 which was warmer. Relative to last winter, the risk rating dropped by one category in Sarnia and Windsor. Iowa State University also has a prediction system. According to that calculation, the risk actually increases this year in the Leamington - Windsor area; and now is in the "High Risk" category. Routine benchmarking and monitoring should be done to determine which model makes the more accurate predictions over time.